How to see Super Tuesday as a professional

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The great victory of Joe Biden in South Carolina suggests that he is ready to do well in Alabama, where African-American voters cast more than half of the votes in the 2016 Democratic primary. But in a state where there have been almost no public polls , Mike Bloomberg's free spending campaign has clouded the outlook.

Bloomberg has already spent more than $ 7 million on television and radio ads here, according to Advertising Analytics, and spent the weekend before Super Tuesday in Selma. It also has the backing of the Alabama Democratic Conference, an influential group of black legislators. In 2016, the group backed Hillary Clinton, who won all the counties in the state in her crushing 78% -19% victory over Bernie Sanders.

Arkansas was somehow the first stop of the presidential campaign of Mike Bloomberg: he flew to Little Rock in early November to appear in person for the state's Democratic presidential primaries.

Since few other candidates have spent time here, and since he has spent more on television and radio ads there than anyone else, Bloomberg appears as well positioned as anyone in the state who introduced Bill and Hillary Clinton on the national stage.

There are only limited public surveys available, but a survey by Hendrix College in early February showed that Bloomberg tied statistically with Joe Biden for first place, with Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg (who has since retired), not far away.

This is the rare Democratic primary where Biden's service as a Barack Obama veep might not be a great asset. Arkansas voted for Hillary Clinton in 2008, and gave an amazing 42 percent to Obama's little-known primary challenger in 2012.

The rich delegate from California is the Super Tuesday Grand Prix, and the only question is how big is the size of Bernie Sanders' victory. Upon entering the contest, it is driven by a two-digit advantage in most state polls, and is ready to be the largest beneficiary of its Mother Lode of 415 delegates, approximately one fifth of what is needed to engage the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders' relentless retail campaign, four demonstrations last week alone, has increased its appeal to the nearly 9 million Democratic voters in the solid blue state. It also aggressively targets 5.5 million voters "without party preference" in a state where housing prices, increasing homelessness and income inequality are the main problems.

Still, billionaire Mike Bloomberg's expenses allowed him to break through in a four-way battle and show battle with Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg (who finished his offer on Sunday). By hiring 300 employees, opening more than two dozen offices and disbursing $ 71 million in non-stop messages, the former mayor of New York City has dominated the waves of California. He has spent almost twice the amount of his closest competitor, fellow billionaire Tom Steyer, who left Saturday, and more than 10 times that of Sanders.

But in a primary that was increased this year until the beginning of March to give California more influence in the election of the candidate, Sanders' campaign years are likely to be worth it here. And there is a possibility that he is the only candidate in California who meets the crucial 15 percent threshold offered by a cache of delegates across the state; The rest of the presidential group seems to divide the remaining 271 delegates from 53 House districts. Biden, however, could benefit from the reduced field: the latest early voting data suggests that California voters are in conflict, as they have delayed the issuance of their ballots by mail in unusually high numbers this year.

However, don't expect a quick response on Tuesday: California Secretary of State Alex Padilla warns that "due to state law and, frankly, the large size of California, the vote count will continue well beyond the night of the elections. "

Colorado has changed from caucus to primary this year: the first time in two decades, the state will not use caucus to vote for presidential candidates. But that is not expected to harm Bernie Sanders, who won a dominant victory in 2016. He has a double-digit advantage in recent public polls, so the expectation is that the actual race will be in second place.

Mike Bloomberg has the greatest paid organizational effort and has spent the most money on television advertising. But he followed Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the most recent poll. Warren has not finished better than the third in any of the first states, but has shown a popular appeal in Denver, where a rally on February 23 attracted approximately 4,000 people.

Like Colorado, this is a state that Bernie Sanders easily won in 2016, and like Colorado, this year marks the first time in two decades that Maine goes from a committee to a presidential primary.

Maine hasn't had many polls, but a Colby College survey in mid-February found Sanders leading the field by 9 percentage points. All others were grouped just at or below the delegate threshold level of 15 percent.

As in many states, Mike Bloomberg has spent more than everyone else by a wide margin here. He has gathered some notable local backups, including from two former Maine congressmen, but so has almost all other candidates.

Elizabeth Warren runs the risk of losing her home state by Bernie Sanders.

The fall of the senator for two periods in the polls has been dramatic. In October, it had an advantage of 20 percentage points, according to a WBUR survey. But the latest version of that poll published on Friday showed Sanders with an 8-point lead. The real draw? Warren has refused to say if he is confident that he will win his home state.

Feeling the opportunity, Sanders is participating in Massachusetts, celebrating two recent demonstrations in Boston (which attracted over 10,000 attendees) and Springfield, and a four-day music and sounding festival in the city of Worcester, in central Massachusetts.

For his part, Warren is sending his substitutes by force. His campaign planned dozens of voting events with state and local officials, as well as with his well-known golden retriever, Bailey.

Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg also have important campaign operations here. Former Secretary of State, and former Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry led a screening of Biden on Saturday in Boston, and former Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis is the president of the Bloomberg & # 39; s Bay State campaign.

Keep in mind that Massachusetts has a Semi-open primary, which works for the benefit of Sanders. The majority of registered voters here are designated "unregistered", which means they are independent, a block with which Sanders tends to succeed.

Before leaving, Amy Klobuchar was favored to win her home state over Bernie Sanders, but not by much. Sanders was pressing hard on her in a state that won easily in 2016, when Minnesota had a caucus. This time, for the first time since 1992, it will hold an open presidential primary.

The question, after his departure from the race, is where does his support from the state of origin go? In the last public survey, which was conducted in the field before Nevada voted, this was a two-person contest between Klobuchar and Sanders with all others grouped below the 15% threshold for delegates. Biden's position was especially weak: he registered fourth with only 8%, three points behind Elizabeth Warren.

The presence of Mike Bloomberg further clouded the image. The former mayor of New York City spent almost $ 13 million on the state and tried to occupy the same moderate lane as Klobuchar, but Klobuchar backed Biden on Monday night.

What is known is that Sanders has a dedicated base here. He attracted large crowds in the Twin Cities area in 2016, and held a concert and a GOTV Super Tuesday eve rally in St. Paul on Monday night, with Rep. Ilhan Omar of the Minneapolis area.

If Joe Biden is going to have a successful Super Tuesday, he will have to offer a good performance in North Carolina, where he is better positioned than in many other states. The proximity of the state to South Carolina means a good overlap of the media market between the two and also allowed a game of land appearance.

The demographic profile of the state also works for Biden's advantage: in 2016, according to exit polls, one third of the electorate was African-American.

Biden has spearheaded the polls here along with Bernie Sanders, but Mike Bloomberg has a gigantic personnel operation of 120 people. Bloomberg has spent approximately $ 13 million, almost $ 11 million more than Sanders, the next largest advertiser in the state.

Sanders and Biden added demonstrations to get the vote on their North Carolina itineraries last week and have spent time in presidential forums in Raleigh, Greensboro and Winston-Salem, which have important black and Latino populations and are home to several major universities .

Elizabeth Warren was born in Oklahoma City and frequently mentions her roots in Oklahoma, but public surveys suggest that she is not an important factor here. One sign: a super pro Warren PAC is spending $ 9 million in three Super Tuesday states, but Oklahoma is not one of them.

Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg are side by side in the latest state poll of potential voters. Bloomberg has established a foothold by spending more than $ 3 million here and has more than 20 employees and three offices across the state.

Bernie Sanders, however, cannot be overlooked here: he won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, capturing all but two of the state's 77 counties.

Almost without recent surveys here, Tennessee is a kind of black box. He promises Joe Biden, especially following the result of South Carolina: it is likely that approximately one third of the votes will be cast by African Americans, and Bernie Sanders beat the state by a margin of 2-1 in 2016 Biden hired a handful of new agents to organize the state, but it relies mainly on small purchases of advertisements and state substitutes to answer for it.

Mike Bloomberg, however, has covered Tennessee's expenses. He has seven offices and 40 employees, and the state is where he publicly defended his history as mayor in front of the recently revealed comments about its stop and record policy.

Elizabeth Warren has had a smaller footprint, but she was the first candidate to train in Tennessee in October; He then redistributed some employees of the first primary state operations to organize.

In the state with the second highest number of delegates available on Tuesday, Bernie Sanders has tied or conducted every public survey conducted this month, eight in total. It is followed by Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren.

Progressive groups have backed Sanders, arguing that he is exceptionally capable of motivating the large population of young and non-white voters in the state. And the establishment Democrats are crossing their fingers to get a victory from Biden, saying he can influence the moderate Republicans Trump rejects.

Warren, a former graduate of the University of Houston who settled here last summer, seems to be on the lookout for delegates according to February surveys: a candidate must earn more than 15 percent across the state or in one of the 31 Senate state districts to pick up delegates He picked up Julian Castro's support last month, which could help raid with Latinos in a state where Latinos cast a third of the primary vote in 2016, according to exit polls.

Bloomberg's massive spending has also gained strength in Texas: its field operation is driven by almost 200 employees. Some prominent supporters have also been hooked here, including Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner.

Several candidates could reach the 15 percent threshold to win delegates here, but one is significantly ahead of the rest: Bernie Sanders. He won the state caucus in a landslide of 2016 and held a concentration in Salt Lake City on Monday afternoon.

Mike Bloomberg has established a presence after spending more than $ 3 million on advertising, buying ads in local newspapers and gathering the largest team. It also has the support of freshman Ben McAdams, the only Democrat in the state Congress, whose district offers more delegates (7) than the other three districts in the state.

But Elizabeth Warren also seems to be a factor. He has invested in television commercials here and Joe Biden occupies a weak position, according to the most recent survey.

Utah voters voted heavily by mail, so the momentum of Biden's victory in the South Carolina primaries may not have much impact on the results.

This should be called quite early on Tuesday night, as soon as the polls close at 7 p.m. The senator of the state of origin, Bernie Sanders, won in 2016 overwhelmingly Hillary Clinton and believes she will do the same again this year.

Sanders is the most popular senator in the country, according to Morning Consult, and has an approval rating of 80 percent among Vermonters. That's why he is planning a rally in Essex Junction just after the polls close. It is a kind of homecoming: the rally will be its first major event in Vermont since May 2019.

Bernie Sanders was expelled here in 2016, but there is not much chance of that happening this year, despite complaints from some Democrats that a Sanders nomination would jeopardize the progress the party has made in Virginia in recent years. .

This is a good condition to assess the strength of Joe Biden after South Carolina. It is a place where you should be successful: according to exit polls, African Americans cast 26 percent of the primary votes in 2016. Biden also has a lot of support from major lawmakers across the state, ranging from Northern Virginia to the Tidewater area, as well as the support of Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia and former president of the National Democratic Committee; Senator Tim Kaine; and the representative of Virginia Bobby Scott, a leading member of the Black Caucus of Congress.

Sanders is struggling with a lot of announcements and demonstrations. A week before Super Tuesday, he scheduled demonstrations in northern Virginia, Virginia Beach and Norfolk.

However, this is not just a two-candidate career. Mike Bloomberg, who has spent freely in the state, launched his presidential campaign in Norfolk. And Elizabeth Warren was above the 15% threshold for delegates in a recent survey.

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Raj Gaur

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